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Registration Number

0224U032574, (0123U102782) , R & D reports

Title

Mathematical methods and models for analysis, forecasting and decision-making support regarding the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic in Ukraine

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Дослідження соціальних та демографічних особливостей поширення COVID-19 в Україні та окремих регіонах країни. Створення комплексної моделюючої системи для підтримки прийняття рішень щодо керування епідемічним процесом

Head

Brovchenko Ihor O., д.ф.-м.н.

Registration Date

20-11-2024

Organization

Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems NAS Ukraine.

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- creation of new and generalization of known mathematical models of the spread of infections, their solution, analysis of epidemic data, forecasting in order to prevent and minimize the consequences of epidemics; -calibration and implementation of developed models for analysis and support of decisions regarding countering the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and future epidemics of infectious diseases in Ukraine; - development of forecasts and recommendations for the governing bodies of the state regarding the management of the epidemic security of the country

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The 138-page report includes an introduction, six sections, conclusions, a list of references of 56 sources, 38 illustrations and an appendix. Objects: mathematical models, infectious diseases. The aim of the project is to create new and generalize known mathematical models of the spread of infections, their solution, analysis of epidemic data, projections in order to prevent and minimize the consequences of epidemics; calibration and implementation of developed models for analyzing and decision support regarding the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and future epidemics of infectious diseases in Ukraine. The report presents a description and examples of the application of a two-dimensional model for the spread of infectious diseases based on the reaction-diffusion equation; exact solutions of an age-structured mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases; an assessment of the impact of the pandemic and other factors on life expectancy in Ukraine; a refined estimate of excess mortality caused by the epidemic based on daily gender-age data; the application of parameter calibration methods to an age-distributed mathematical model of infection spread; a description of a modeling system for decision support in epidemic management. KEY WORDS: mathematical models, COVID-19, statistical data, excess mortality, numerical algorithms, calibration of parameters.  

Product Description

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Ivanov Ihor L.
Bezhenar Roman V.
Davydovych Vasyl V.
Dutka Vasyl A.
Kivva Serhii L.
Terletska Kateryna V.