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Registration Number

0222U003312, 0119U001123 , R & D reports

Title

Development of updated scenarios for changing of regional climate characteristics in Ukraine by the end of the 21st century.

Head

Krakovska Svitlana V., Кандидат фізико-математичних наук

Registration Date

05-03-2022

Organization

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Description

 The aim of the research work was to update climate scenarios for Ukraine for the main and specialized climate characteristics by the end of the 21st century based on the formed ensembles of modern regional climate models (RCM). We used the most detailed (0,1ох0,1о) data of RCMs from the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that were initialized by 5 global circulation models, and underwent modern bias-correction procedure. We formed ensembles of RCMs for all climatic characteristics. In general, daily data of 240 RCM runs for the period 1991-2100 were used in the study and analyzed for three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For evaluation of climate change in the past we used the European gridded dataset E-Obs v.20.0e for the 30-year standard reference period 1961-1990 recommended by WMO and a base period 1991-2010 in relation to which changes in climatic indicators were calculated. Obtained and analyzed quantitative characteristics of thermal and moisture regimes based on RCM ensembles for three RCP-scenarios and three future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2081-2100). Particularly, via applying daily RCM data calculated multiannual mean monthly, seasonal and annual air temperatures and sums (totals) of precipitation, their changes in relation to 1991-2020, variability within the territory of Ukraine and confidence intervals of RCM ensembles. Also represented the analysis of year air temperature and daily air temperature ranges, continentality, heat and moisture supply of the warm season and the hydrothermal Vorobjov index. Analyzed indicators were included in Electronic Atlas of climate characteristics of Ukraine, that contains 420 maps and developed as a web application on the JavaScript programming language and HTML & CSS markup language.

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