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Information × Registration Number 0201U008053, 0199U003753 , R & D reports Title Designing Econometric Methods to Derive Short-term Economic Forecasts on the Basis of Business Tendency Surveys and Official Statistics Data popup.stage_title Head Pugachova M.V., Registration Date 13-12-2001 Organization Research Institute of Statistics of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine popup.description2 Studies on international experience in short-term forecasting by means of conjuncture surveys. They involve general and contextual description of the components of the econometric model applied by the EC Commission. The model is based on statistics data and information obtained from conjuncture surveys held in the EC Member States. Also, consideration is given to the possibilities to apply the experience by INSEE in designing short-term forecasts for Ukraine. There's a nomenclature of macroeconomic indicators existing in Ukraine, along with the search into the possibilities of their application for analysis and forecasting. The ways to improve conjuncture surveys as the basis to derive dynamic series relevant to the forecasting needs have been found out. This involved investigating the problems related to data quality and data requirements; data coverage; application of relevant international classifications and their multiple modifications. Proposed are the ways to improve dynamic series. Also, subje ct to analysis are specifics of indicators algorithms adopted in Europe and the former USSR. A brief method on identifying economic cycles and forecasting applied by the organisations in Europe and America (basic cycles, growth cycles, business activity cycles) is set out; algorithm on turning points and movements assessment; specifics underlying selection of cyclic indicators; application of the data from business surveys as cyclic indicators. Some reasoning is devoted to the relevance of this method to the data on Ukraine that differ in quality terms as well as in observation periods. The methods of short-term forecasting on the basis of short dynamic series of the data by the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine and those from conjuncture surveys have been put on test. The algorithms applied enabled to select the leading, coincident and lagging indicators to measure industrial output. Also, given are expectations data on industrial output in Ukraine over the first 4 months 2000. Product Description popup.authors popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close