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Information × Registration Number 0206U000371, 0103U000529 , R & D reports Title The system analysis and forecasting of the critical and catastrophic risks in the dynamics of the management by the safety of the technologically and ecologically dangerous objects. popup.stage_title Head Pankratova N.D., Registration Date 24-01-2006 Organization Education-scientific complex "Institute of applied system analysis" popup.description2 Object of research are the outstandard and critical situations at functioning complex technical systems. The purpose of work - to offer reception of duly detection of the risk situations and operative prevention of their transition in critical, extreme or emergencies as a basis of the risk management strategy and maintenance of guaranteed safety in dynamics of the complex technical system functioning. A subject of the research is the processes of the transition of a standard mode to a outstandard situation, processes of the transition of a outstandard situation to a critical situation and processes of transition of a critical situation to an extreme situation. The idea of offered strategy is the maintenance in real conditions of the complex system functioning on the basis of time and authentic detection, recognition, estimation of the risk factors, forecasting of their development during the certain period of operation, elimination of the reasons before failures occurrence and other undesirable consequences. The algorithm for the recognition of the risk situations in the dynamics of the complex technical system functioning is offered taking into with consideration sensitivity thresholds of the situation set. The task decision of the multifactor risk minimization is carried out with reference to process of the information network functioning on the basis of a sequence of the enclosed sets of risk situations (factors), which is generated as a result of the performance of the situations recognition algorithm in view of the dynamics of the specified process functioning. The estimations of the software reliability are received on the basis of generalization, analysis both research of different static and dynamic models of the software reliability. The generalized model of the not homogeneous Poisson process is submitted, in which all advantages of base models for not homogeneous Poisson process are taken into account. Product Description popup.authors popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close