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Information × Registration Number 0208U000267, 0105U006428 , R & D reports Title Development of theoretical bases and methods of forecast of solar activity and geophysical effects caused by it popup.stage_title Head Lychak Mykhailo Mykhailovich, Registration Date 22-01-2008 Organization Space Research Institute popup.description2 The purpose of the research is development of a constructive technique for forecasting solar activity and geophysical effects caused by it, formation of bank of the synchronous multifactor data of these changes, creation of methods and algorithms of their processing and analysis of the experimental data. Research methods used are methods of the systems analysis of the synchronous data on solar and geomagnetic activity and inspection of their correlation, formation of bank of the synchronous data, including through a network Internet, co-operation with the research officers of other Ukrainian establishments, participation in scientific seminars and conferences, development of methods, algorithms and programs of an estimation of informative parameters of the indicated synchronous data and forecasting of solar activity and geophysical effects caused by it. The cyclicity of changes of the space factors and geophysical effects stipulated by them, (including, changes in average temperature of the Earth's surface) is shown. The technique of their analysis and forecasting is developed based on representations of these changes as cyclical random processes. The estimation of average periods of cyclical changes of the data on solar and geomagnetic activity based on processing of the experimental data was conducted. The synchronous data on solar activity and appropriate geophysical evidence of its influence were used. Namely, data on Wolf numbers of solar activity W for the longest considered period of their regular recording (that is, between 1700 and 2006), and level of radio emission of the Sun on a 10,7 сm wave (index F10.7) during the period 02.1984-07.2003. Rhythmic of a daily average geomagnetic index Dst was investigated during the period 02.1984-07.2003 and also it hourly values for that time. The smoothing of sequence of the data by sliding windows with various fixed widths was conducted, which determines the boundary for differentiating fast varying and slowly varying parts. Product Description popup.authors popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close