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Information × Registration Number 0209U010717, 0108U001504 , R & D reports Title The development of the methods and ways of modeling of the future event scenarios. popup.stage_title Head Pankratova Natalja Dmitrievna, Registration Date 18-12-2009 Organization Education-scientific complex "Institute of applied system analysis" popup.description2 The job performance is a system methodology to construct the scenarios of the future events in the different innovative activity spheres on using the methods of the high-quality analysis. The realized high-quality methods are the methods of the hierarchy analysis, Delfi, morfological analysis, semantic modelling on the base of the situation logic, scenarios etc. The problem on deciding the foresighting tasks consists in the definition of the proper role of the each from the indicated methods, in the ground to associate this methods in the single methodology. The rezulted groups of the methods represent the different approaches, their association depends from such factors as the nature of the researched problem, the task purpose, the possibility to organize the correspond expertize, the methods and ways to estimate the probability of the rezults, multifactorial risks of different nature, the financial resources, the time время, which necessary for the realization. There is indicated the application of the high-quiality analysis methods in the development of the future events scenarios with accounting the uncertainty of the different nature and factors of the risk. Product Description popup.authors Макуха Михайло Павлович Малафеєва Людмила Юріївна Недашківська Надія Іванівна Опаріна Олена Леонідівна Панкратова Наталія Дмитрівна Савченко Ілля Олександрович popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close