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Information × Registration Number 0210U001269, 0108U006118 , R & D reports Title Realization of forecasting and analytical researches of scientific-technological development of a country on basis of mathematical-statistical models popup.stage_title Head Kononenko Igor, Registration Date 02-02-2010 Organization National technical university "Kharkiv polytechnic institute" popup.description2 Research object - scientific and technological development of the economic activities of the country Work aim - conduction of forecast-analytical studies of the development of scientific, technological and staffing provision of the main economic activities of the country. Creation of proposals for the development of scientific, technological and staffing provision of the main economic activities of the country. A review of methods of scientific foresight was conducted. It resulted in the choice of simulation modeling methodology to solve the task. The structure of system of models was developed. Basic relationships and information, personnel, financial and technological flows between the country's economic activity, education, areas of R&D were identified. The forecasting method of non-stationary stochastic processes using H-criterion was created and analyzed. The algorithm of modeling of scientific and technological development is proposed. The simulation model of scientific and technological development of the main economic activities of the country was developed and implemented in the software according to system dynamics methodology. A list of statistical data needed for setting up simulation model for the main economic activities was generated. The information from State Statistics Committee of the Ukraine was collected. To collect the lacking information surveys of experts on the basis of the developed questionnaire was conducted. A setup of simulation model of scientific and technological development of the main economic activities of the country was conducted, the accuracy criterion was chosen. The simulation model was checked for adequacy and verified on the testing data. Scenarios of development of country's major economic activities were formed. A forecast-analytical studies based on experiments with the simulation model were conducted and proposals for the development of scientific, technological and staffing of the main economic activities of the country were created. Product Description popup.authors Ємельянова Олена Володимирівна Єфременко Тетяна Миколаївна Кононенко Ігор Володимирович Лісачук Георгій Вікторович Лакіна Дар'я Вікторівна Марченко Андрій Петрович Рєпін Антон Миколайович Товажнянський Леонід.Леонідович Харазій Анна Володимирівна Чайкова Олена Ігорівна popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close