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Information × Registration Number 0212U005315, 0109U000775 , R & D reports Title The system of models is to development for prognostication of product of crop-production and stock-breeding markets of Ukraine. popup.stage_title Head Shvydenko Mikhaylo Zinoviyovych, Registration Date 13-06-2012 Organization National agricultural university of Ukraine popup.description2 Object of the research - status and development of agricultural product markets (the system of quantitative indicators for monitoring supply and crop production and livestock). Purpose - development of appropriate methods and systems of economic and mathematical models to forecast crop and market livestock industries and food security of Ukraine. Methods and apparatus - in the research the following methods are used: abstract and logical, statistical and economic, comparison and grouping, analysis and synthesis, monographic, settlement and constructive, economic and mathematical modeling, the method of expert estimates, the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, systematic approach and personal computers with installed software: SPSS, STATISTICA, StatgraРhics, MINITAB, Excel. As a result of the research the theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting and modeling of agricultural markets were studied and summarized; the state and trends in crop and livestock were analysed; the main structural dependence and linkages with other sectors were determined and on their basis the prognostic hypotheses were formed; the generalization of existing methods and models of agricultural sectors forecasting was conducted; the effectiveness of their application to the time series of economic data that form the livestock production market was evaluated; the method of economic forecasting was developed: methods of forecasting economic time series based on non-structural methods, methods of forecasting based on ARIMA, even and multiple regression and balance method (inter-branch balance); the review and evaluation of software for building forecasting models was conducted; the system of forecasting models of agricultural products supply and demand was created; the elasticities of major food items were determined; the state of food security was assessed; the analysis of existing approaches to modeling and food security forecasting was conducted; the demand of processing industries for raw material of agricultural production was estimated and forecasted; the comprehensive model of Ukrainian crop and livestock markets combination (interaction) was created; the potential of crop and livestock sectors in Ukraine was defined. The research results can be used to make informed management decisions by public authorities for agricultural markets regulation. Product Description popup.authors Коритний Василь Олексійович Романщак Ольга Микитівна Стариченко Євгеній Михайлович Швиденко Михайло Зіновійович popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close