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Information × Registration Number 0213U004076, 0111U001312 , R & D reports Title To develop mathematical methods of modeling of the epidemic processes connected with proliferation of dependence on drugs and others psychoactive substances popup.stage_title Head Linsky I. V., Barannic E. A., Registration Date 31-01-2013 Organization State Institution " Institute neurology, psychiatry and narcology AMS of Ukraine" popup.description2 Objects of investigation - the epidemiological processes connected with proliferation of dependence on alcohol, drugs and other objects of abusing and methods of their mathematical modeling. The work purpose - to create mathematical methods of modeling of the epidemic processes connected with distribution of dependence on drugs and others psychoactive substances for forecasting of dynamics of drug and alcohol addiction. Research methods - the analysis of official statistics, results of selective epidemiological researches of proliferation of drug dependence; mathematical modeling, methods of mathematical statistics. Results. The mathematical model of development of epidemic of dependence from psychoactive substances, being modified model Verhulst with parameters changed in time is developed and approved. The forecast concerning the further development of specified epidemic on 2013 and 2017 is made. The method of forecasting of case rate of alcoholism and drug addiction which is based on the revealed correlation communications between an index of human development and disease of frustration of narcological profile is developed and approved. The method of definition of duration of patients stay on the narcological account on the basis of calculations of a half-life period of cohorts dispensary groups is offered and approved Product Description popup.authors Єна Р. Бараннник Є. Гема О. Гольцова С. Дьяченко Л. Лінський І. Мінко О. Мусієнко Г. Сергієнко О. Толстолузький Д. popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close