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Information × Registration Number 0216U001153, 0113U001133 , R & D reports Title The development of theoretical frameworks and the development of methods and means of forecasting demand for energy resources, taking into account the structural and technological change popup.stage_title Head Malyarenko Olena Yevgenivna, Кандидат технічних наук Registration Date 25-01-2016 Organization Institute of General Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine popup.description2 The object of study - the volume of energy resources that are necessary to ensure that the energy-intensive economic activities, taking into account the demand for domestic consumption and export production activities; the volume of energy required for the functioning of the economy, taking into account the structural changes that have occurred in the retrospective period and planned for the future to 2030; structure of fuel and energy. Purpose - improving the methods of forecasting consumption levels given the economic factors of supply and demand, the impact of structural changes in the economy; develop methodical approach to determining the predictive structure of consumption of fuel and energy. Methods - analytical and statistical, system analysis, economic-mathematical modeling. The report shows the following research results: improved method of forecasting levels of energy consumption for production, wherein the possibility of determining the forecast energy consumption for internal and external demand for products, improved method of estimating the energy efficiency of export activity-through energy for export-oriented technology, wherein that instead of energy intensity index currency and valuation of imported and exported energy use-through energy content of the final product and defined amounts of energy that materialized in export products; improved economic and mathematical model that takes into account the impact on energy consumption by economic activity (EА) changes in the structure of gross value added (GVA) Structural changes in the economy for the retrospective period 2001-2013 gg. and calculated consumption levels projected FER for aggregated on EA perspective to 2030 under two scenarios: the structure of the base year and forecast economic structure, taking into account technological energy saving potential and possible replacement of natural gas in industry and the energy sector; The methodical approach to determine the predictive structure of fuel and energy indicators hazoyemnosti, naftoyemnosti, vuhleyemnosti GVA for EA and prognosis structure adopted for the electricity and heat generating sources to the energy sector; defined structure projected fuel consumption in final energy consumption for EA and fuel and energy in total energy consumption of the country. Scientific novelty of the results are: - Four generalized model calculations of forecast levels FER considering technological and structural energy saving and FER volumes for internal and external use for certain types of export oriented products, assess the feasibility of export-import operations efficiency indicators; - Methodical approach to determine the predictive structure of primary fuels for energy intensity of gross value added in terms of primary energy for EA and projected structure of electricity and heat generating sources to the energy sector, calculated consumption levels projected FER considering structural and technological energy saving and the primary fuel to 2030. Product Description popup.authors Євтухова Т.О. Куц Г.О. Майстренко Н.Ю. Маляренко О.Є. Симборський А.І. Станиціна В.В. popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close