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Information × Registration Number 0216U002179, 0113U002033 , R & D reports Title Development and improvement of methods and tools of forecasting the development of energy complex based on deterministic-stochastic models popup.stage_title Head Kulyk Mykhaylo, Registration Date 29-01-2016 Organization Institute of General Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine popup.description2 The object of study - energy complex of Ukraine and its branch subsystems. Study's goal - improve existing and develop new mathematical models and its systems, software applications to investigate operation conditions and further development of national energy complex, taking into account outer factors uncertainty of energy complex development. Deterministic-stochastic models was improved giving possibility make more correct assessments of technical and economic indicators of main technological objects of power complex, in particular for photovoltaics the panel degradation factor is accounted, for thermal power plants probabilistic reliability of their operation which depended from conditions of its exploitation is accounted. A system of mathematical models to forecast of energy complex long-term development pathways, which is based on mathematical models of dynamic programming with integer variables, the use of which allows to find optimal structure of power system generation capacity as a set of fixed power units for 50 years period and even further. The implementation of these systems of mathematical models is carried out using the developed software application. Three representative scenarios of generating capacities development were developed until 2040 Product Description popup.authors Лещенко І.Ч. Нечаєва Т.П. Спітковський А.І. Шульженко С.В. popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close