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Registration Number

0216U002929, 0116U008372 , R & D reports

Title

Development of methodology of forecasting of emergency situations of natural character, taking into account trends periodic changes

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Head

Ivanets Grigoriy Vladimirovich,

Registration Date

12-01-2017

Organization

National Civil Defence University of Ukraine

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The result of scientific research substantiates the model of the process of changing the generalized parameters emergency situations of natural character, taking into account trends, periodic changes, and the proposed algorithm estimates the components of the generalized parameter. To estimate the periodic component of the methodology of the evaluation period and the values of the periodic component of the random process of change of the generalized parameter natural disaster based on the maximum likelihood method. To predict the random component of the process of changing the generalized parameters natural disaster the expediency of using the method of pairwise considerations. Developed methods of forecasting of emergency situations of natural character and levels, as well as methods of predicting the possible damages due to natural disaster. Experimental studies of the proposed model and the menique.

Product Description

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Смирнов Олег Миколайович
Стецюк Євген Ігорович
Толкунов Ігор Олександрович

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2020-04-02