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Information × Registration Number 0217U001716, 0115U004099 , R & D reports Title The development of forecast system of convective phenomena (heavy rainfalls, thunderstorms and hail) on the territory of Ukraine popup.stage_title Head Shpyg Vitalii, Registration Date 05-04-2017 Organization Ukrainian hydrometeorological institute popup.description2 . For the territory of Ukraine it was installed and configured three versions of the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The software for controlling the forecast data streams of the atmospheric model has been created. Algorithms for calculating indices of instability have been developed, the results of which are presented in the form of values at irregular grid points (weather stations), charts and maps. By archival material for May-September of 2014 the assessment of comparative data of the surface network and Doppler meteorological radar regarding precipitation, thunderstorms and hail. The prognostic properties of instability indexes were studied using the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic WRF models. It is shown that the use of the instability indexes Totals total index, SWEAT index, K index, Lifted index and Showalter index will lead to an incorrect forecast due to the uncertainty in the distribution of indicators for the case with thunderstorms and without thunderstorms, and these distributions are little dependent from spatial ability of the weather forecast model. The new combined predictor designed to predict thunderstorms has been developed. On an independent materials the assessment of the quality of forecasts was carried out. The estimation of the possibility of hail prediction in direct calculations in WRF models is performed. Numerical experiments were carried out. Several ways to implement hail forecasting are suggested. It is shown that forecasting of showers is expedient with the help of a mesoscale forecast model. Product Description popup.authors Будак Ігор Васильович Шпиг Віталій Михайлович popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close