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Information × Registration Number 0218U002459, 0115U002776 , R & D reports Title Development of system for monitoring and forecast weather conditions causing wildfire hazard in Ukraine popup.stage_title Head Balabukh Vira, Registration Date 14-03-2018 Organization Ukrainian hydrometeorological institute popup.description2 Daily pyrological and meteorological data bases have been formedfor 187 hydrometeorological stations in Ukraine for a recent climatic period of 1981-2010. Specific features of pyro-climatology data for this period have been determined for areas of rapid response of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in natural ecosystems.The trends of their change as like as significance, confidence and uncertainty in the studied period have been established.The dependence of the number and area of wild forest fires on climate indicators and their changes has been revealed.Decisive influence of air temperature on the degree of natural fire risk has been proved and found that thecharacteristicsmore effecton wild fire area and considerably less for their number.Modeling of pyro-climatic characteristics of a fire-risk season in Ukraine has been carried out by the middle of the 21st century (2021-2050), the projections of their changes relative to the recent climatic period have been constructed and their significance and probability have beenestimatedfor the scenario SRES A1B of thebalanced society development. The effectiveness of the assessment of the wild fireprobability according to the Fire Danger Risk Factor (FDRF) by V.G.Nesterov and its modified indicators has been investigated for the territory of Ukraine.It was found that operational methods of monitoring and forecasting of wild fire risk in Ukraine do not reflect the real dependence of wild fire in forests on the weather conditions and the current adopted scale does not reflect the real distribution of the forest fireoccurrence.Therefore, the technique requires modification of the index and the development of regional scales of fire risk based on the seasonality of their formation conditions. Accounting accumulated precipitation and wind speed can improve the assessment of fire danger due to weather conditions.It was found that the Portuguese index PORT more adequately describes the natural fire danger in Ukraine than FDRF by V.G.Nesterov. An Integrated Fire-Risk Tension Indicator (IFRTI) has been proposed, followed by regionalization of the territory of Ukraine by IFRTI with the determined most vulnerable zones to forest fires.The peculiarities of climatic conditions that affect the occurrence of forest fires in zones with different tension of fire risk have been revealed.For each zone, regional scales have been developed for assessing fire-risk classes by meteorological conditions analogously to Nesterov'sFDRD and PORT index.A complex method of estimation of the natural fire risk, which includes an assessment of both arealnatural fire-risk tensionand regionalfire-risk class and degree scales. An automated system of climate monitoring for natural fire risk has been developed which allows for every station to obtain pyro-climatic data, the degree of tension of natural fire risk according to weather conditions, the number of days with different fire risk class both with and without regional scales, the value of FRDR and PORTfor the indicated period and to assess their possible changes by the middle of the 21stcentury for the SRES A1B scenario.An automated monitoring and forecasting system of natural fire risk based on meteorological conditions in Ukraine has been elaborated.It allows to obtain operational prognostic information (with forecast time of 24-72 hours) on the class and the degree of natural fire risk, the features of its formation and to track in real time the development and extension of natural fire risk. Product Description popup.authors Балабух Віра Олексіївна СамчукЄвгеній Віталійови Ягодинець Степан Миколайович popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close