Search academic texts

Information × Registration Number 0219U000922, 0116U006639 , R & D reports Title Development of methods and software complex of retrospective analysis, statistical processing and short-term forecasting of the daily schedules the total electrical load power company popup.stage_title Head Chernenko Pavlo, Registration Date 15-03-2019 Organization Institute of electrodinamics National academy of sciences of Ukraine popup.description2 A comprehensive study was conducted to increase the efficiency of short-term forecasting of the total electrical load (TEL) of energy supply company (ES). The database (DB) for storing the input information about the load of the ES and factors that affect it - meteorological, astronomical, calendar, technological. The latter reflects the specifics of the electricity consumption of a number of EC, in which a tangible stake is made by energy-intensive enterprises. The DB provides for storing the results of forecasting in order to accurately assess the accuracy and identify the factors that caused the occurrence of errors. Two mathematical models have been developed to solve the problem: an analytical additive model and a model using the modern apparatus of artificial intelligence in the form of a different architecture of artificial neural networks. In the conditions of the future liberalized electricity market of Ukraine in the ES, additional economic incentives are added to improve the accuracy of hourly forecasts of its TEL. Application in the work of three-level two-stage validation of the source information, additional consideration of the impact on the total electric load of technological and astronomical components, the possibility of using for a mathematical model of homogeneous initial data of many years of pre-history, a more perfectly statistically substantiated meteorological component in aggregate will provide more accurate and stable results of forecasting in comparison with methods that are moving into EC nowadays. Quantitative estimates can be obtained after conducting comparative calculations on a single source information. Object of research: energy supply companies. Field of use: electric power. Product Description popup.authors Заславський Аркадій Ілліч Мірошник Володимир Олександрович Мартинюк Олександр Васильович Черненко Павло Олексійович popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close