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Information × Registration Number 0219U100202, 0115U004373 , R & D reports Title Development and improvement of methods for forecasting of the energy complex development based on deterministic-stochastic and inter-sectoral balance models popup.stage_title Head Leshchenko Irynа Ch., Кандидат технічних наук Registration Date 30-01-2019 Organization Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine popup.description2  A new methodology of systems analysis is being developed to forecast the development of the national energy complex, which involves determining demand for the main types of fuel and energy resources based on input-output models, and defining the development of energy sectors using the sectoral models. The methodical principles of constructing balance models of the general equilibrium of the national energy sectors are proposed. It is proved that the use in equilibrium model of prices and outputs of transposed matrix direct costs is unreasonable and leads to gross errors. Proposed correct simultaneous equations connecting equilibrium prices and outputs, a general class of solutions is allocated, which can be used to determine practically acceptable values of these indicators. The deterministic-stochastic models of technological objects of power engineering have been improved. A new optimization model for the study of the prospects for the development of the mix of generating plants of an electric power system with integer variables is proposed. It allows determining the terms of specific power plant units operation and determining the required investment. The optimization model of the gas industry has been improved, which takes into account the phases of the launch date of new technologies and identifies the necessary investments. For implementation of developed system of mathematical models, existing and new software was carried out. Representative scenarios of industries of the national energy complex were developed until 2040, which allow to determine the grounded directions of their long-term development. The results of the work were used in preparing comments, suggestions and expert opinions on a number of important documents on behalf of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine, the Department of Energy Efficiency of Ukraine, the Presidium of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Product Description popup.authors popup.nrat_date 2020-04-02 Close