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Information × Registration Number 0220U000540, 0118U000444 , R & D reports Title Improvement methodology of short- and medium rang forecasting of wildfire hazard from meteorological conditions popup.stage_title Head Balabukh Vira, Registration Date 27-02-2020 Organization Ukrainian scientific research Hudrometeorological Institute popup.description2 3. The analysis and quantitative assessment of the impact of precipitation on the natural fire danger in Ukraine is conducted. It is proved that differentiated account of precipitation and pyro-climatic features of the territory are necessary to increase the effectiveness of fire risk assessment due to weather conditions in Ukraine. The low efficiency of accepted in Ukraine consideration of precipitation in the assessment of natural fire danger by Nesterov V. G. method is established. The dependence of the frequency and area of forest fires on the amount of precipitation and the moisture capacity of different types of soils was revealed.For the first time for the territory of Ukraine the limits of the fire hazard period were obtained taking into account the amount of rainfall and water-physical properties of soils; were established correcting weights on precipitation for the indicator of fire danger, depending on the limit of the fire danger period. The effect of wind speed on the recurrence of forest fires and their spread was evaluated. Found that differentiated consideration wind speed can significantly improve the monitoring of forest fires in terms of weather, especially the spread of fire compared with the Nesterov V. G.method. The function of calculation of the complex index of fire danger under the weather conditions with allowance for precipitation and wind speed has been clarified and conducted its assessment.The proposed function proved to be the most effective among similar methods in the assessment of fire danger under the weather conditions in the zone of low and high intensity of fire danger in Ukraine and took second place in the zone of moderate tension. The general background of anthropogenic impact on natural fire danger for all regions of Ukraine is established.The change in anthropogenic risk during the fire season and during the week in connection with the change in anthropogenic load was detected and determined the level of anthropogenic factor activity.Corrections for the activity of anthropogenic factor to the complex index of fire danger under the weather conditions were obtained. For the first time a method of short- and medium-term forecasting of natural fire danger under meteorological conditions was developed for Ukraine, taking into account the anthropogenic factor activity.Based on the created methodology, an automated system of short- and medium-term forecasting of natural fire danger under meteorological conditions in Ukraine was developed. Product Description popup.authors Балабух Віра Олексіївна Ягодинець Степан Миколайович popup.nrat_date 2020-07-03 Close