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Information × Registration Number 0221U103012, 0116U001162 , R & D reports Title Investigation of climate and agroclimatic resourses changes effect in differnt zones of Ukraine on the boundary of spread and potential grapevine productivity till 2050 popup.stage_title Head Lyashenko Galina V., Registration Date 12-02-2021 Organization National Scientific Centre "V.Ye. Tairov Institute of Viticulture and Wine-making" popup.description2 The aim was to develop a model of grape damage due to the manifestation of unfavorable (limiting) agroclimatic conditions and to determine the risks of grapes damage of different frost-resistant varieties until 2050 according to climate change scenarios. Analytical, correlation and regression methods were used to determine the relationship between frost dates and the minimum air temperature in the layer 0-50 and 0-200 cm and the method of mathematical modeling to determine the risk of damage of different grapes varieties due to frost. The source information was data from the literature, field experience data, and data from agroclimatic reference books. The results of the research were systematization of information on damage to vineyards due to adverse agroclimatic conditions in Ukraine over the past 40 years, based on which a model of risk of damage to vine was developed and its adequacy was checked. Using the developed model of the conditional probability of damage to vine due to frost, modeling was performed, the results of which investigated the features of the risks of deterioration of vineyards due to adverse agroclimatic conditions in the steppe and forest-steppe zones of Ukraine until 2050. It is established that despite the shift of frost dates to the early stages of their termination, the risks of damage to vine are reduced to a small extent, which is also explained by the shift of the terms of phenological development of grape varieties. The difference in the risks of damage to vine in 2050 does not exceed 15-20%, and greater risks are observed in grape varieties of early ripening. Therefore, according to the limiting agroclimatic factors, the shift of the zone of distribution of viticulture in the northern regions is insignificant. Product Description popup.authors Bulaieva Iuliia Yu. Vlasov Vyacheslav V Vlasova Olena Yu. Melnyk Ella B Suzdalova Vira I popup.nrat_date 2021-02-12 Close