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Information × Registration Number 0221U103905, 0119U002260 , R & D reports Title Climate changes and their impact on hydrologic and hydroecologic bahaviours for limans of north-west Black Sea coast popup.stage_title Head Hohlov Valerii M, Доктор географічних наук Registration Date 26-02-2021 Organization Odessa State Ecological University popup.description2  The study aims to quantify regional climate change that has occurred and is expected in the near future in the north-western Black Sea coast, to determine its impact on the water balance of "choked" limans, taking into account anthropogenic activities in watersheds, to identify effective ways to stabilize hydrological and hydroecological behaviour of estuaries in modern and expected climatic conditions. The main research method is mathematical modeling of hydrological and hydroecological regimes in "choked" limans at the north-western Black Sea coast using data from the ensemble of regional climate models from Euro-CORDEX project. Analysis of modeling results for the period 2021-2050 for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 allowed to choose a single simulation, which best reproduces the intra-annual changes of meteorological parameters as compared to the ensemble mean values. Current (2000-2018) and near-future changes (2021-2050 under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the components of the annual freshwater balance of “choked” limans were analyzed compared to 1961-1990. In particular, it was found that the volume of freshwater inflow in the natural conditions of runoff formation in the period 2021-2050 will decrease by 30% in the climatic conditions of the RCP4.5 scenario and by 49% in the climatic conditions of the RCP8.5 scenario. The limans can be ranked by the vulnerability to climate change due to a significant annual deficit of fresh water balance in the absence of other sources of water (e.g., from the sea) in the following order: Kuyalnytskyi, Dofinovskyi, Tuzla group, Budatskyi, Sasyk, Tyligulskyi, Hadzhybeiskyi. Product Description popup.authors Veliyeva Anna O Kushnir Dmytro V. Loboda Nataliia S Nedostrelova Larysa V Serge Edward M Tuchkovenko Yuriy S Khokhlov Valery M popup.nrat_date 2021-02-26 Close