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Information × Registration Number 0222U003183, 0116U001770 , R & D reports Title "Integrated management modelitrovanie safe use of food, water and energy resources for sustainable social, economic and environmental development" popup.stage_title Head Zahorodnyi Anatolii H., Доктор фізико-математичних наук Registration Date 21-02-2022 Organization State Institution "Center for Evaluation of Activity of Research Institutions and Scientific Support of Regional Development of Ukraine NAS of Ukraine" popup.description2  GDR report: 181 pages, 10 tables, 21 figures, 118 sources mathematical modeling, risk assessment, system analysis, food security, covid-19 epidemic Object of research - parameters of economic, ecological, agrarian, social and epidemic indicators of Ukraine. The aim of the work is to develop methods of analysis and modeling of the impact of uncertainty and risk on the food and economic spheres of Ukraine. Research methods - systems analysis, mathematical modeling, nonlinear programming, optimal control, statistical methods. Models have been developed to study the negative impact of global pandemics on economic development, which take into account epidemic, economic, social and environmental factors and allow to determine effective strategies to minimize economic losses from the epidemic in different scenarios of its development. The stochastic model of COVID-19 spread has been improved, which takes into account the nonlinear dependence of the infection rate on the number of patients; inhibition of anti-epidemic infections and regional heterogeneity. The economic aspects related to the selection of risks in health insurance markets in the information age are considered. An analysis of the approaches used to quantify the impact of climate change on agriculture: biophysical models, time series of yields, cross-sectional models, and panel data models. Improved methods for estimating the impact of climatic parameters on yield. Coherent and convex risk measures and their dual representation are considered. For the case of uncertain probability distributions, where the probability measure is described by a whole set (uncertainties), robust constructions of risk measures and the apparatus of polyhedral coherent risk measures are proposed. Product Description popup.authors Atoyev Constantine L. Holonikov Alexander M. Gorbachuk Vasil M. Kirilyuk Vasil S. Knopov Paul S. Pepelyaeva Tatiana V. Shpiga Sergii P. popup.nrat_date 2022-03-09 Close