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Information × Registration Number 0224U033436, (0120U100487) , R & D reports Title Development and improvement of forecast methods for dangerous and severe weather over Ukraine popup.stage_title Розробка та вдосконалення методів прогнозу небезпечних та стихійних метеорологічних явищ над Україною Head Semergey-Chumachenko Alina B., Кандидат географічних наук Registration Date 27-12-2024 Organization Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University popup.description1 development of new and improvement of existing methods for predicting hazardous and severe weather over various regions of Ukraine, as well as characterizing the variability of meteorological values and circulating conditions in Ukraine during climate change popup.description2 The aim of the work is to develop new and improve methods for forecast danger and extreme meteorological phenomena in Ukraine, as well as to characterize the variability of meteorological quantities and circulation conditions in Ukraine during global warming. Research methods: processing of meteorological data, spatio-temporal generalization of information, synoptic analysis, statistical analysis, quantitative assessment of the state of the atmosphere, regression analysis, modeling. Advective changes in air temperature and humidity on the eve of the formation of low clouds were determined, the effectiveness of fog forecast methods was assessed. The spatio-temporal distribution of dangerous convective phenomena in Ukraine was established by observation data and the European Severe Storms Laboratory database. The spatial and temporal distribution of heavy precipitation in 1979-2019 was determined by the data of ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, and a trend towards an increase in the number of heavy snowfalls and a decrease in heavy rains was revealed. A study was conducted to determine of atmospheric circulation, the thermodynamic state and sources of atmospheric moisture during extreme precipitation in Ukraine over 40 years. Was proven the feasibility of using the frontal parameter for forecasts of heavy precipitation and thunderstorm in Ukraine near fronts. Methods for using atmospheric instability indices to determine the start of convecttion were improved. It was found that the use of predictive data of moisture advection in the boundary layer allows for early diagnosis of the formation of convective phenomena and improve the effectiveness of storms forecast. Synoptic processes were systematized, during which the extreme positive and negative air temperature anomalies occurred in Ukraine; The research materials were introduced into the educational process and the work of the weather forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas. Product Description popup.authors Ahaiar Ellina V. Borovska Halyna O. Voloshyna Olena V. Mishchenko Nataliia M. Nazhmudinova Olena M. popup.nrat_date 2024-12-27 Close