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Information × Registration Number 0225U001529, (0122U001559) , R & D reports Title Forecasting the impact of the tourist system on the country's economy popup.stage_title Сценарне моделювання впливу туристичної системи на національну економіку Head Boiko Marharyta H., Доктор економічних наук Registration Date 02-02-2025 Organization State University of Trade and Economics popup.description1 The aim of the project is to develop theoretical provisions and forecasting methodologies popup.description2 Ukraine needs to restore the tourism system. Using foresight as a means of predicting the future state contributes to the formation of conditions for effective development. The purpose of the project is to develop theoretical provisions and a forecasting methodology to determine the mainstream of the tourism system of Ukraine during the global crisis. The essence and content of the foresight of the tourism system are substantiated. The following methods were used: horizon scanning, assessing the levels of potential impact and probability of occurrence of certain factors; the BANI method - to identify possible α- and β- development scenarios; the matrix method - to interpret the strategic directions of development of tourism system entities, surveys - to determine the state of tourism system entities. An analysis of the main economic indicators of the development of the tourism system during the war period indicates the presence of potential opportunities (certain indicators reflect a stable or growing trend: the volume of tax revenues in 2023 increased by 15.6%, RevPAR in the main destinations in 2023 increased by 116.9%). Identified α- (optimistic) and β- (pessimistic) scenarios that guide the subjects of the tourism system to adopt appropriate strategies. Using the methods of "Two Axes" and "Branches", 4 possible scenarios for the development of regional tourism systems in the medium (2021-2026) time horizons were substantiated - optimistic, crisis prevention, local crisis, collapse, and in the long-term (2026-2031) time horizons - progressive attractiveness, unrealized potential, adaptation, prolonged crisis. Measures are proposed: innovative technologies, digitalization, digital consumer engagement, artificial intelligence, innovative investment models. Product Description popup.authors Antoniuk Kateryna H. Bovsh Liudmyla A. Bondar Svitlana V. Bosovska Myroslava V. Vivsiuk Iryna O. Vedmid Nadiia I. Zikii Nataliia L. Zubko Tetiana L. Kompanets Kateryna A. Kryvko Anna F. Kulyk Mariia V. Lisnyi Mykyta I. Lavrentii Yelizaveta Ye. Lositska Tetiana I. Mazaraki Anatolii A. Melnychenko Svitlana V. Okhrimenko Alla H. Rasulova Alla M. Romanchuk Liudmyla D. Slobodianik Anastasia A. Stopchenko Yevheniia I. Tkachuk Tetiana M. Cherneha Olena M. Shulha Valeriia S. popup.nrat_date 2025-02-02 Close