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Registration Number

0225U003482, (0124U004041) , R & D reports

Title

Migration Security Strategy of Ukraine: simulation of losses and optimization of labor and resource potential for post-war reconstruction

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Стратегія міграційної безпеки України: імітаційне моделювання втрат та оптимізації трудо-ресурсного потенціалу для повоєнної відбудови

Head

Olha P. Mulska, д.е.н.

Registration Date

02-07-2025

Organization

Mulska Olha P.

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to develop a strategy for migration security of the country; substantiation of mechanisms and measures of regulation of migration processes in the conditions of optimization of labor and resource potential based on the results of simulation modeling of migration losses of the country

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The object of the study is migration processes that affect the state of Ukraine’s labour resource potential under conditions of war and post-war transformation. The purpose is to develop a national migration security strategy by substantiating mechanisms for regulating migration and tools for optimizing labour resources based on the results of simulation modeling of losses. The methodological basis includes system, semantic and cause-effect analysis, VAR and SVAR modeling, factor, comparative and index analysis, the Granger causality test, and the construction of impulse response functions (IRF), as well as an expert survey of representatives of local authorities and businesses. Econometric modeling was carried out using EViews software. The study substantiates a conceptual model of the complementary influence of migration as both a challenge and a resource for socio-economic development. Simulation modeling was conducted to explore causal relationships between migration losses and indicators of economic security, determine critical threshold values, and assess the potential of re-emigration and reintegration. Scenario-based forecasting of labour resource optimization was implemented, taking into account the war’s consequences and reintegration challenges. As a result, the architecture of Ukraine’s migration security is proposed as a complex multi-level system that includes strategic guidelines, structural-functional components, evaluation criteria, and institutional response mechanisms. The developed model serves as a tool for designing adaptive policies aimed at preserving and regenerating the labour potential in conditions of high population mobility and socio-economic instability. The practical significance lies in the formation of an analytical and informational basis for developing regional migration security strategies, supporting policy-making for population mobility regulation, human capital retention, and ensuring socio-economic resilience during and

Product Description

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2025-07-02