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0225U004836,
(0124U003219)
,
Smart Grid model for operational management of distribution networks based on artificial intelligence methods
Аналіз отриманих результатів щодо ефективності застосування прогнозів вузлового навантаження/генерації для використання в SmartGrid моделі
Blinov Ihor V., Доктор технічних наук
19-12-2025
Institute of Electrodynamics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
The main goal of the work is to create a test Smart Grid model for the operational planning and management of distribution networks (Lithuanian partners) and to estimate the value of electrical energy losses based on the forecasting of nodal loads and the generation of renewable energy sources (RES) using artificial intelligence methods (Ukrainian partners)
As a result of the implementation of stage No. 4 of the research, a comprehensive comparative evaluation of classical and neural network models for forecasting the electrical load of a non-domestic consumer on the horizons of 1 and 24 hours was carried out. The results obtained allowed us to establish the specifics of the application of different approaches depending on the time depth of the forecast and the structure of the input data. The scientific novelty of the work lies in conducting a comprehensive analysis of the accuracy and stability of the models using not only traditional metrics (ME, MAE, RMSE, MAPE), but also an additional study of error distributions, which made it possible to quantitatively assess the stability of forecasts and identify patterns of systematic shifts of individual methods.
Volodymyr O. Miroshnyk
Pavlo V. Shymaniuk
Viktoriia V. Sychova
2025-12-19
Updated: 2025-12-20
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