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0225U005197,
(0124U001199)
,
Models of the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources for growing agricultural crops.
Моделі впливу кліматичних змін на агрокліматичні ресурси вирощування сільськогосподарських культур.
Vozhehova Raisa А., Доктор сільськогосподарських наук
26-12-2025
Institute of climate smart agriculture of the national academy of agrarian sciences of Ukraine
simulate the impact of climate change on the agroclimatic resources of the growing season of agricultural crops.
Knowledge about climate change is extremely important for farmers, as it directly affects yields, economic stability, and long-term planning. A better understanding of climate trends allows you to build a strategy for farm development for years to come, invest in appropriate equipment and adaptation technologies. Based on the results of research conducted in 2024–2025, models were created of the impact of climate change expected under RCP scenarios on the agroclimatic conditions for growing leading agricultural crops in the Odessa and Kherson regions. Under the conditions of implementation of the soft and hard climate change scenarios for all studied crops, the heat requirements, which are analyzed through the sums of active temperatures and average temperatures for interphase periods, are fully satisfied in the studied area. The moisture availability of winter wheat, spring barley and lentils, due to their rather short growing season and redistribution of precipitation by season, will decrease insignificantly compared to current conditions, and in some studied decades even a certain improvement in moisture conditions is expected. Therefore, it can be expected that there will be no significant decrease in the yield of these crops, and the yields will remain at the level of current values. On the other hand, for crops with a longer growing season and subject to summer droughts, a very significant deterioration in growing conditions is expected. This will negatively affect future yields, which can already be seen at the present time. The expected moisture conditions for millet crops will be worse than current ones, but due to the increased drought resistance of the crop, under appropriate agricultural techniques, it is possible to expect that yields will remain at the current level. Growing corn will be advisable only with irrigation. Therefore, the solution may lie in switching to winter crops that accumulate moisture in autumn and winter, as well as in the introduct
Oleksandr L. Rudik
Taras S. Zhygailo
Elena A. Barsukova
Serhii O. Zaiets
Oksana V. Volvach
Oleh M. Prokof’iev
2025-12-26
Updated: 2025-12-27
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