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Information × Registration Number 0226U001108, (0124U000550) , R & D reports Title Modeling the mechanisms of combating organized and transnational cybercrime in war and post-war periods popup.stage_title Моделювання когерентності забезпечення національної безпеки, суспільно-економічних трансформацій та протидії організованій, транснаціональній кіберзлочинності в країні Head Tiutiunyk Inna V., Доктор економічних наук Registration Date 21-01-2026 Organization Sumy State University popup.description1 Development, based on the results of economic-mathematical modeling, of mechanisms for combating organized and transnational cybercrime in war and post-war periods for the formation of a global, open and safe cyberspace, protection of the population from cyberthreats and cyberfraud, increasing the effectiveness of procedures for financial monitoring and control over the movement of funds in cyberspace popup.description2 During the implementation of the project, an integrated model for the formalization of risks related to cybercriminal financial activities affecting national security and defense capability was developed. The model captures the interaction between external macro-factors and internal vulnerabilities of digital and financial infrastructures and makes it possible to identify stable structural relationships between clusters of risk factors and to assess their potential escalation effects in the context of systemic economic destabilization. Based on multidimensional adaptive regression splines, nonlinear causal relationships between socio-economic impacts and the dynamics of cybercrime were identified; a retrospective assessment of the factors determining the intensity of cyber threats was conducted; and forecast trajectories of cybercriminal activity were constructed depending on transformations in key economic and social parameters. Using the event study method, the temporal responses of stock markets to cyber incidents involving leading companies across different industries were determined, a comparative model of market sensitivity was developed, and differences in the reactions of the financial, technological, and telecommunications sectors to cyber incidents were identified. The existence of a unified short-term reaction in the form of negative abnormal returns was demonstrated, followed by a phase of recovery or stabilization depending on the structural characteristics of companies and their sectoral affiliation. A comprehensive toolkit for strategic forecasting and cyber risk management was developed, encompassing a risk map, a structural-logical impact scheme, predictive models, and a system of scenario analysis, enabling preventive, adaptive, and strategically sound decision-making in the field of cybersecurity Product Description popup.authors Inna V. Tiutiunyk Yaroslav V. Reshetniak Andrii Y. Semenog Oleksandr S. Kushnerov Nadiia M. Shcherbak Denis V. Pasko Iryna V. Pozovna Ivan V. Khalimonchuk popup.nrat_date 2026-01-21 Close