Registration Number
0217U006147,
0114U001200
, R & D reports
Title
To develop method of a mathematical modeling of agonistic-antagonistic interactions between dependence conditions of different origin in the process of their epidemic spreading
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Head
Minko O.I.,
Registration Date
16-02-2017
Organization
State Institution " Institute neurology, psychiatry and narcology AMS of Ukraine"
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Objects of investigation: processes connected with a spreading of alcohol, drug and other dependences; factors influencing on their interactions and methods of their mathematical modeling. Aim of SRW: to develop methods of mathematical modeling for agonistic-antagonistic interactions of conditions of dependence of different origin. Methods of investigation: an analysis of the official statistics of results of selected epidemiological studies on prevalence of substance abuse dependence; mathematical modeling, methods of mathematical statistics. Results: It was shown, that during last 25 years throughout all Ukraine interrelations between epidemics of alcohol and drug dependences had being transformed from cooperative to concurrent ones. It was revealed that concurrence between abovementioned epidemics resulted from the fact of a limited amount of persons predisposed to develop dependences in the population. It was demonstrated that various regions of the country belonged to 2 qualitatively different groups: the group with a predominance of concurrent interrelations between abovementioned epidemics from the very beginning of our observation (the regions with a high prevalence of dependences at baseline) and the group with predominantly cooperative interrelations between the epidemics (the regions with a low prevalence of dependences at baseline). It have been worked out a mathematical model which takes into account relations of cooperation-concurrence between the epidemics of alcohol and other substance dependences and is bases on Lotka-Volterra equations. It was shown that a deviation of the proposed method is only ± 0.29 % (in 2.2 times less in comparison of the best existing method). It was performed cost-effectiveness calculations for this method and it was demonstrated that its implementation in all-Ukrainian level would provide cost-effectiveness no less than 1.870.000 hryvnias per year.
Product Description
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І. Лінський
І. Чалиш
В. Шалашов
К. Лінська
Л. Маркозова
Н. Лісна
О. Бараненко
О. Болотов
Р. Єна
С. Гольцова
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2020-04-02
