Registration Number
0218U000839,
0117U005425
, R & D reports
Title
Methods and models in forecasting of dynamics of the ecjnjmscs systems
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Head
Lapshin Vladimir,
Registration Date
15-02-2018
Organization
Kharkiv Institute of Finance of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
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Report on Research Work includes an introduction, 6 divisions, conclusion, 34 tables, 7 figures, 86 references, 70 pages. A research object is mathematical methods and models that can be used in an economy. An aim of work is expansion of the use of mathematical methods for the estimation of the state and planning of development of economy, is development of new methods of making decision, models of exchange, is application of methods of taxonomy, factor analysis, cross-correlation-regressive analysis in financial and economic arrangements. Method of analytical procedure of structurization of great number of criteria and alternatives by the method of pair comparisons at making decision, worked out on a department, is applied for the choice of directions of tourist business development. The economics-mathematics modelling of linear and nonlinear dynamics of amount of different size enterprises in Ukraine is conducted. Possibility of the effective use of extrapolation method for short-term prognostication of dynamics of economic processes is investigated. A linear dynamic model is based on differential equation of first-order at times with right part that is the product of amount of enterprises and function from time. On her basis prognostication of dynamics of small, middle and large enterprises in Ukraine is conducted at the beginning of 2016. A nonlinear model represents the competition of middle and large with small enterprises in Ukraine. The socio-economic state of regions of Ukraine is considered from statistical data of 2016. The express analysis of the states of regions is conducted on four important economic indicators (a volume of retail commodity turnover of enterprises, volume of the realized industrial products, amount of active enterprises and amount of capital investments) by the method of multidimensional analysis-taxonomy. On the basis of statistical data of 2016 of Government statistics service of Ukraine clusters of export and imported commodity products is investigated by the methods of ABC, XYZ. Complex table for these groups shows the positive and negative signs of export and import of commodities in Ukraine. The socio-economic state of regions of Ukraine is conducted by the method of taxonomy, determination of Gini coefficient and ABC-XYZ express-analysis. The integral and separate socio-economic indexes in 2015 and 2016 were used. The fractal analysis of the implementation of innovations is conducted at industrial enterprises of Ukraine in 2000-2015. Method for predicting the specific weight of enterprises which introduced innovations, the number of new technological processes and new types of equipment belongs to antipersistent time series, that is why a method of forecasting was chosen as the method of exponential smoothing. In general the forecast values show an insufficient level of development of innovative processes at industrial enterprises of Ukraine.
Product Description
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Ілюхіна М.Є.
Анцибор М.С.
Борисенко О.В.
Глотов Є.О.
Гончарова Д.О.
Конотоп К.О.
Кузнєцова П.А.
Кузніченко В.М.
Кутько М.Є.
Літюк Д.С.
Лапшин В.І.
Леонтьєва Г.Г.
Лопушанський Д.М.
Смолякова А.А.
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2020-04-02
