Registration Number
0219U004997,
0115U006532
, R & D reports
Title
The forecasting of severe meteorological phenomenon over Southern Ukraine
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Head
Semerhei-Chumachenko Alina Borysivna,
Registration Date
28-12-2019
Organization
The Odessa State University of Ecology
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The object of the study is the meteorological and circulating conditions for the formation of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine. The purpose of the work is to develop new and improve existing methods for predicting severe meteorological phenomena in the south of Ukraine, as well as characterizing the circulating conditions over the study region against the backdrop of climate change. The relevance of the work is to improve the quality of predictive support of the state economy by developing new and improving traditional methods for forecasting dangerous weather conditions, identifying and typing weather and circulation conditions on the eve of the occurrence of dangerous weather phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine. Research methods - processing of meteorological data of various origin, spatio-temporal generalization of meteorological and synoptic information, synoptic analysis, statistical analysis, quantitative assessment of the state of the atmosphere. Identified current conditions for the occurrence of hazardous wind zones over the south of Ukraine. Proven and modified typification of synoptic processes that enhance wind speed. The current mode of precipitation over the south of Ukraine and the types of synoptic processes that enhance precipitation are determined. A quantitative assessment of the intensity of atmospheric fronts in the summer is provided. The influence of the dynamic characteristics of the lower atmosphere on the evolution of low cloudiness is characterized and it is proposed to take into account the indicated patterns for its forecast. Predictive dependencies are obtained for determining the height of the lower border of cloudiness over Odessa in the cold half-year. The estimation of the possibility of using the radiation fog forecast method for Odessa is given. The features of synoptic conditions for the formation of strong squalls over the Odessa region are established. The meteorological and aero-synoptic factors contributing to the occurrence of tornadoes over the south-west of Ukraine are determined. A set of convection indices was found, which should be used to assess the readiness of the atmosphere for the occurrence of vortices and strong hail. The implementation of the obtained results in the work of the GMC BAS will contribute to increasing the effectiveness of weather forecasts over the south of Ukraine. The introduction of the results in the educational process will improve the mastery of the disciplines of "Synoptic meteorology", "Aviation and satellite meteorology", "Specialized weather forecasts", "Mesometeorology and nowcasting".
Product Description
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Агайар Елліна Вікторівна
Гончарова Людмила Дмитрівна
Міщенко Наталя Михайлівна
Нажмудінова Олена Миколаївна
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2020-04-02
