Registration Number
0220U001152,
0119U002260
, R & D reports
Title
Climate changes and their impact on hydrologic and hydroecologic bahaviours for limans of north-west Black Sea coast
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Head
Khokhlov Valeriy, Доктор географічних наук
Registration Date
29-01-2020
Organization
The Odessa State University of Ecology
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The subject of the study is the impact of climate change on the characteristics of the hydrological and hydroecological regimes for lagoons of the northwestern Black Sea region and determining the most effective ways of their management. Object of study is the hydrological and hydroecological regime of "closed" lagoons of the northwestern Black Sea region. The study aims to quantify the regional climate changes that have occurred and are expected in the near future in the northwestern Black Sea region, to determine their impact on the water balance of "closed" lagoons, taking into account anthropogenic activity in catchments, to determine effective ways to stabilize hydrological and hydroecological regimes of the lagoons in current and expected climatic conditions. Research methods - statistical analysis of observational data from meteorological stations located in the northwestern Black Sea region and the results of climate change modeling (starting from the 70s of the XX century) that have already taken place and are expected in the XXI century, according to the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 ensemble of regional climatic models of the Euro-CORDEX project, as well as mathematical modeling of the hydrological and hydroecological regimes of "closed" lagoons of the northwestern Black Sea region. Climate changes that have occurred over the past twenty years (the so-called current climate period) are compared with the climate norm for the period 1961-1990. According to the results of the Euro-CORDEX project, a database of meteorological values (average monthly air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, cloudiness) was created for 24 stations located in the northwestern Black Sea region and Moldova on the catchments of small rivers feeding the lagoons of the northwestern Black Sea region, for the period 2021-2050. The database consists of the results of an ensemble of 14 climate change scenario models RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. An assessment of changes in climatic factors and water resources in the modern period and expected in the first half of the XXI century is carried out. An analysis of future changes showed that the trends that are observed during the current climate period will continue in the next 30 years. This will allow us to assess the expected changes in the hydrological regime, hydroecological status and natural resources of "closed" lagoons in the near future. The input data was collected and processed on the morphometric characteristics of lagoons - objects of study to assess their water balance components and scenario hydrodynamic modeling. Preliminary scripted mathematical modeling was performed to determine an effective stabilization strategy for the hydrological and hydroecological regimes of the Tiligulsky Liman and Kuyalnitsky Liman lagoons.
Product Description
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Козлов Михайло Олексійович
Куза Антоніна Миколаївна
Кушнір Дмитро Валентинович
Лобода Наталія Степанівна
Недострелова Лариса Василівна
Сєрга Едуард Миколайович
Тучковенко Юрій Степанович
Хохлов В.М.
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2020-04-02
