Registration Number
0221U100334,
0120U104784
, R & D reports
Title
Economic-mathematical modelling and forecasting of the impact of COVID-19 on the development of Ukraine in national and regional contexts: public health factors and socio-ecological-economic determinants
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Head
Vasylieva Tetiana A., Доктор економічних наук
Registration Date
04-01-2021
Organization
Sumy State University
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Combinations of public health factors and socio-economic-environmental determinants have been identified that have led to regional differentiation of population vulnerabilities from COVID-19. Individual roadmaps for future anti-epidemiological measures with an appropriate system of markers have been developed for all regions. In the national context, the dependence of GDP and unemployment levels on about 60 indicators of socio-economic development is formalized, the impact of quarantine restrictions on changing these trends is assessed, their further dynamics in 2020-2022 are predicted: 1) using neural networks - in the absence of "quarantine" stopping the economy; 2) by system-dynamic simulation modelling in the Vensim program - in the event of new waves of the pandemic and different scenarios for the introduction of quarantine restrictions. This will reduce the economic and social risks associated with a pandemic and a large-scale quarantine shutdown of the economy
Product Description
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Demikhova Nadiia V
Kubatko Oleksandr V
Кuzmenko Olha V
Lieonov Serhii V.
Liulov Oleksii V.
Pogorielov Maksym V
Smiianov Vladyslav A
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2021-01-04
