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Information × Registration Number 0221U100335, 0119U102403 , R & D reports Title Development of identification methods and optimal control for stochastic systems in epidemiology popup.stage_title Head Bila Halyna D., Registration Date 04-01-2021 Organization V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine popup.description2  The following main results were obtained: the analysis of existing modeling methods and stochastic identification in epidemiology is carried out; a new stochastic epidemic model has been developed; an algorithm for estimating the unknown parameters of the disease spread model, built on the basis of Markov field using the maximum probability method and the least squares method, has been developed; the asymptotic properties of the received estimations of unknown parameters of epidemiological model are investigated; a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in Ukraine and a forecast of the spread of the disease were made. The results of the work make it possible to obtain new important properties and laws of stochastic systems in epidemiology; detail knowledge in solving theoretical and applied problems of epidemiology (the emergence, spread and extinction of epidemics); contribute to the creation, development and research of new statistical methods of identification theory, cybernetics and mathematical epidemiology. Potential consumers may include domain related to epidemiology, health care and infectious disease monitoring. Product Description popup.authors Bila Halyna D. Samosonok Oleksandr S. popup.nrat_date 2021-01-04 Close