Registration Number
0221U100335,
0119U102403
, R & D reports
Title
Development of identification methods and optimal control for stochastic systems in epidemiology
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Head
Bila Halyna D.,
Registration Date
04-01-2021
Organization
V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
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The following main results were obtained: the analysis of existing modeling methods and stochastic identification in epidemiology is carried out; a new stochastic epidemic model has been developed;
an algorithm for estimating the unknown parameters of the disease spread model, built on the basis of Markov field using the maximum probability method and the least squares method, has been developed; the asymptotic properties of the received estimations of unknown parameters of epidemiological model are investigated; a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in Ukraine and a forecast of the spread of the disease were made. The results of the work make it possible to obtain new important
properties and laws of stochastic systems in epidemiology; detail knowledge in solving theoretical and applied problems of
epidemiology (the emergence, spread and extinction of epidemics); contribute to the creation, development and research of new
statistical methods of identification theory, cybernetics and mathematical epidemiology. Potential consumers may include
domain related to epidemiology, health care and infectious disease monitoring.
Product Description
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Bila Halyna D.
Samosonok Oleksandr S.
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2021-01-04
