Registration Number
0223U001467,
0120U102200
, R & D reports
Title
Modeling of management strategies for the Carpathian forest landscapes under climate change scenarios
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Head
Kruhlov Ivan S., к.геогр.н.
Registration Date
28-01-2023
Organization
Ivan Franko National University of Lviv
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The object of the study: the forest landscape of Rakhiv raion, the spatio-temporal change of which is caused by succession, natural disturbances and management.
The aim of the study is to find out the long-term (250 years) prospective impact of management on timber harvesting volumes and above-ground living carbon (AGLC) stocks under scenarios of climate change and natural disturbances.
Research methods. The LANDIS-II simulator was parameterized for three management scenarios and five climate change and disturbance scenarios.
Main findings. In the absence of management, the total AGLC will increase by 38-40% until the end of the 21st century, and then decrease to +14--16% by the middle of the 23rd century. Natural disturbances will limit the growth of AGLC by 10-12% during the 21st century and by 0.3-4.3% in the middle of the 23rd century. Climate change will not directly affect the future volumes of logging during the 21st century. Inertial management based on the natural renewal of forest stands, a total rotation period of 145 years and a short (50 years) rotation period of spruce plantations ensures sustainable harvesting of wood during the 21st century. Adaptive management (current and prospective), aimed at active restructuring of stands by planting adaptive species, makes it possible to reduce the total rotation period to 100 years and thus increase the amount of harvest by 34-36% during the 21st century, but the spruce harvest will begin to deplete in 2060 -2080 years, and this will lead to a general decline in harvesting. However, even at the very end of the century period, adaptive management will provide at least ~11% more harvesting than inertial management. Forest management has a decisive impact on AGLC stocks not only for the next 100 years, but also determines future AGLC trajectories for hundreds of years ahead. A detailed description of measures for suggested forest management strategy at the level of forestry zones was developed.
Product Description
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Ivanovych Bohdan Vasylovych
Bilanyuk Volodymyr Ivanovych
Prytula Roman Volodymyrovych
Smaliychuk Anatoliy Dmytrovych
Smaliichuk Hanna Volodymyrivna
Tykhanovych Yevgen Ye
Chaskovskyi Oleh Hryhorovych
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2023-01-28
