Registration Number
0226U000185,
(0124U004602)
, R & D reports
Title
Development of mathematical models for predicting resource consumption using smart meter data
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Розробка математичних моделей прогнозування споживання ресурсів з використанням даних смарт-лічильників
Head
Shtovba Serhii D., д.т.н.
Registration Date
06-01-2026
Organization
Vasyl' Stus Donetsk National University
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to investigate the accuracy with which it is possible to predict the volume of natural gas consumption in the residential sector during the heating season using data collected from smart meters.
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Models have been developed to forecast natural gas consumption by individual subscribers during the heating season, based on statistics on gas consumption by each
subscriber. The initial data was collected on a daily basis using smart meters.
The data represents the gas consumption volumes of several subscribers from several regions of Ukraine. The observation period lasted from 2 to 5 years. A set of models has been developed that take into account the consumption volumes of each subscriber, considering meteorological data (air temperature and wind speed),
as well as the unevenness of consumption by day of the week and changes in consumer behavior over time. The impact of the modeling horizon on the accuracy of gas forecasting for individual subscribers was investigated. The effect of improving forecasting accuracy when forecasting is carried out not for a single subscriber but for a group was also investigated.
Product Description
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Potapova Nadiia A.
Serhiy SHTOVBA
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2026-01-06
