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Registration Number

0225U004683, (0121U113509) , R & D reports

Title

Polar Regions in the Earth System

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Статистична обробка матеріалів досліджень та підготовка Звіту за проєктом та публікацій

Head

Maderych Volodymyr S., д.ф.-м.н.

Registration Date

17-12-2025

Organization

Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems NAS Ukraine.

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The overall goal of the project is to provide a new understanding of the key processes of atmosphere-ocean-ice interaction in the Arctic and Antarctic, their reactions and impact on global climate change and their consequences for society and the environment. To this end, a new numerical model of hydrothermodynamics of cavities in the ocean under shelf glaciers will be developed, which will be implemented in the model of ocean circulation and calculations of the processes of formation of deep ocean waters will be performed. The trajectories of Antarctic water masses will be studied using the Lagrangian model. The potential contamination of the Arctic Ocean with radionuclides under the influence of climate change will be estimated using mathematical models. The work is performed as part of a consortium of leading EU research groups in the fields of polar meteorology, oceanography and climatology.

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The report presents the results of the analysis of the trajectories of water masses around Antarctica and the Arctic ocean, calculated using the Lagrangian models improved by the authors of the project. The study was carried out to determine the flows under the ice shelves of West Antarctica, as well as the influence of the Antarctic Peninsula on the development of these flows. The three-dimensional flow data in the area around the entire Antarctica required for modeling were obtained from calculations using the specialized Antarctic circulation model WAOM. The pathways of water masses were characterised by calculating three Lagrangian statistical parameters: the visitation frequency, the mean age, and the representative trajectory. In addition to the trajectory representing particles leaving FRIS through the Filchner Trough, a trajectory of particles leaving FRIS through the central part of the Ronne Ice Shelf was found for the first time. Overall, the particle tracking of water formed at the shelves of the Weddell and Ross Seas demonstrates that the water from the two biggest shelf sources in the descent process mixes, resulting in the blending of water and homogeneity of the AABW. In the hindcast scenario, about 40% of the water on the shelf descends below a depth of 3,000 m, whereas in the projection scenario, this water accounts for only 5%, suggesting that there will be major climate change induced circulation changes in coming decades. The radioactive contamination of the Arctic Ocean was studied using Lagrangian simulations of caesium-137 transport from different source scenarios. Results showed that shallow-water releases can trap up to 75% of caesium in sediments, while deep-water releases leave less than 1% in sediments. The most significant threat to fisheries is linked to shallow releases in the Barents Sea. KEYWORDS: West Antarctic sea shelf, Lagrangian methods, circulation modeling, water mass flows, statistical analysis.

Product Description

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Volodymyr S. Maderych
Roman V. Bejenar
Igor O. Brovchenko
Kateryna V. Terletska
Ivan V. Kovalets
Liudmyla F. Udovenko

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2025-12-17